Wednesday 30th of September
🌍The market Story
Wall Street edged lower on Tuesday, but stocks recovered from deeper losses after softer economic data and calmer comments from the Fed.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.17%, the Dow fell 0.26%, and the Nasdaq lost just 0.09%. The bigger story remained bonds, with the 10-year Treasury briefly reaching 5.29% before easing this morning.
Oil has also fallen sharply from last week’s highs, giving markets some relief on inflation.
This morning, attention turns to inflation and jobs data, which could shape expectations for the Fed’s next move.
📊 Market Snapshot
US Markets:
Index | Close | Daily Move |
|---|---|---|
S&P 500 | 7,670.84 | -0.17% |
Nasdaq | 26,797.54 | -0.26% |
Dow Jones | 51,349.92 | -0.26% |
Russell 2000 | 2,807.92 | -0.40% |
Market Takeaway: Stocks finished slightly lower, but the losses were limited despite another difficult day for the bond market.
Key Markets:
Gold: $4,180/oz
Gold has recovered from Monday’s sharp fall as Treasury yields cool slightly.
Oil: around $95.50 per barrel
Oil has fallen sharply from recent highs as some supply concerns ease.
Bitcoin: around $83,500
Bitcoin remains subdued as high bond yields continue to compete with riskier assets.
Dollar: The dollar remains strong, helped by high US interest rates.
🔎 Why Markets Moved
1. Bond yields remained high
The 10-year Treasury briefly touched 5.29%, while the 30-year reached its highest level since 2002.
Why markets cared: Higher yields make borrowing more expensive and can make stocks less attractive.
2. US economic data weakened
Job openings fell to 7.08 million, while consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, its lowest level since 2014.
Why markets cared: Softer data could reduce the need for the Fed to raise rates quickly.
3. Fed expectations cooled
New York Fed President John Williams said there was “no need for urgency” on another rate hike.
Why markets cared: Markets now see roughly a 45% chance of an October hike, down from around 70% previously.
Biggest Winners 📈 & Biggest Losers 📉
Winners -
🟢 Iovance Biotherapeutics: +31.5%
Jumped after raising its 2026 revenue guidance.
🟢 Carnival: +13.4%
Rallied after reporting record quarterly revenue and stronger-than-expected results.
🟢 Bloom Energy: +10.8%
Rose after announcing an expansion of its Fremont manufacturing facility.
Losers -
🔴 Fair Isaac: -26.5%
Plunged after new federal rules threatened its dominance in credit scoring.
🔴 Apple: -2.7%
Fell as investors continued weighing growing competition from Meta’s Muse AI platform.
⚠️ Key Risks
1. Bond yields remain above 5%
The 10-year is still around 5.23%.
Why it matters: High yields can continue putting pressure on stock valuations.
2. Oil volatility
Brent has fallen below $100, but the Middle East remains uncertain.
Why it matters: Another oil spike could quickly revive inflation concerns.
3.Consumer weakness
US consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since 2014.
Why it matters: If confidence turns into weaker spending, company earnings could eventually feel the impact.
👀 What To Watch Today
1. PCE inflation
The Fed’s preferred inflation measure is due today.
A hotter reading could push Treasury yields higher again.
2. ADP jobs report
Investors will get another look at the health of the US labour market.
Bottom Line
Stocks held up relatively well on Tuesday despite another rise in long-term bond yields.
Today’s inflation and jobs data could now decide whether yields continue cooling or move back toward recent highs.