Wednesday 26th August 2026
🌍The market Story
US stocks bounced on Tuesday as oil prices fell and bond yields eased, giving technology stocks some breathing room ahead of Nvidia’s earnings.
The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Dow gained 0.3%, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.7%. Nvidia, AMD and Micron all moved higher as investors returned to chip stocks after several weaker sessions.
The bigger help came from the wider market backdrop. Brent crude fell below $90 and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped toward 4.6%, easing some of the pressure on inflation, borrowing costs and expensive growth stocks.
Today is the real test, with PCE inflation this morning and Nvidia earnings after the close.
📊 Market Snapshot
US Markets:
Index | Close | Daily Move |
|---|---|---|
S&P 500 | 7,677.24 | +0.32% |
Nasdaq | 26,151.30 | +0.66% |
Dow Jones | 53,577.40 | +0.30% |
Russell 2000 | 3,010.02 | +0.50% |
Market Takeaway: Stocks rallied broadly as lower oil and bond yields gave markets some breathing room.
Key Markets:
Gold: $4,666 per ounce
Gold finished slightly higher despite falling oil and yields, remaining close to recent highs.
Oil: $88.58 per barrel
Oil fell sharply as hopes for progress in Iran-Oman talks reduced fears of further disruption to supply through the Strait of Hormuz.
Bitcoin: $78,900
Bitcoin briefly traded above $80,000 before finishing the US session just below $79,000.
Dollar: The dollar edged slightly lower on Tuesday.
🔎 Why Markets Moved
1. Oil fell below $90
Brent dropped sharply as hopes for progress in Iran-Oman talks reduced fears of further disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
Why markets cared:
Lower oil helps ease pressure on inflation, household budgets and company costs.
2. Treasury yields moved lower
The 10-year Treasury yield fell toward 4.6% as oil prices eased and investors became less worried about inflation.
Why markets cared:
Lower yields reduce borrowing costs and make expensive growth stocks more attractive.
3. Softer economic data reduced rate fears
New-home sales fell sharply and consumer confidence weakened, suggesting households are becoming more cautious and the economy may be cooling slightly.
Why markets cared:
If the economy slows, the Fed has less reason to keep interest rates high. That can help bring borrowing costs down and give stocks more support.
💡Market Highlight - Nvidia & PCE: Two Big Tests Today
Today gives markets two very different tests.
PCE inflation comes first. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, and a softer reading could help keep bond yields lower and support stocks. A hotter reading could quickly bring rate worries back.
Then, Nvidia reports after the close. The key question is not simply whether Nvidia beats expectations, markets want to know whether the huge amount of money being spent on AI is still translating into strong demand and profits.
Why it matters:
PCE tests whether the rates backdrop is improving, while Nvidia tests whether the AI growth story is still strong enough to justify high valuations.
In simple terms: one tests the price of money, the other tests the market’s biggest growth story.
Biggest Winners 📈 & Biggest Losers 📉
Winners -
📈 AMD: +4.9%
AMD led the chip rebound after receiving an analyst upgrade.
Why it moved:
Investors returned to semiconductor stocks as lower oil prices and bond yields improved the backdrop for technology.
📈Moderna: +14.0%
Moderna jumped again following increased optimism around its personalised cancer vaccine developed with Merck.
Why it moved:
An analyst raised their price target after last week’s strong melanoma trial results.
📈 Micron: +2.5%
Micron recovered after several difficult sessions for semiconductor stocks.
Why it moved:
Improving sentiment toward chips ahead of Nvidia’s earnings helped investors move back into the sector.
Losers -
📉 Dick’s Sporting Goods: −30.7%
Dick’s plunged after cutting its full-year forecasts.
Why it moved:
The weaker outlook raised concerns that consumers are becoming more cautious about non-essential purchases.
📉 Target: −3.8%
Target fell after controversy around a Halloween product brought renewed attention to the retailer’s brand-management problems.
Why it moved:
The setback came just as investors had started becoming more optimistic about Target’s recovery
The takeaway:
Technology benefited from easing oil and bond-market pressure, while Dick’s sharp fall was another warning that consumers are becoming more selective about where they spend.
⚠️ Key Risks
1. PCE inflation comes in hot
Today’s inflation report could quickly move bond yields.
Why it matters:
A stronger-than-expected reading would raise fears that rates need to stay high for longer, putting pressure back on growth stocks.
2. Nvidia disappoints
Expectations are extremely high heading into tonight’s results.
Why it matters:
Even a good quarter may not be enough if future guidance falls short. That could hit semiconductors and the wider AI trade.
3. Oil and yields turn higher again
Brent has fallen below $90 and the 10-year Treasury has eased toward 4.63%, but neither pressure has fully disappeared.
Why it matters:
If oil rebounds and yields rise at the same time, inflation fears and borrowing costs could quickly put pressure back on stocks.
👀 What To Watch Today
1. PCE inflation
This morning’s PCE report is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.
2. Nvidia earnings
Nvidia reports after the close, with expectations already extremely high.
Bottom Line
Inflation and Nvidia.
We will get the inflation results before the market opens and we will get the Nvidia results after the market closes. Both are pivotal.