Monday 28th of September
🌍The market Story
Wall Street finished Friday higher, closing out its first winning week in three. The S&P 500 gained 0.51%, the Dow rose 0.93%, and the Nasdaq added 0.48% as investors continued buying AI-linked stocks.
AI remained the market’s strongest theme. Microsoft jumped 3.7% after unveiling new Copilot capabilities, while Qualcomm gained 4.0% and Dell rose 5.0%. AI spending is still giving investors a reason to own technology even as the macro backdrop becomes more difficult.
The problem this morning is oil and interest rates. Brent has rebounded to around $106 after President Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to resolve the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The 10-year Treasury ended Friday at 5.16%, while markets now see roughly a two-thirds chance of another Fed hike in October.
The new week begins with two forces pulling against each other: powerful AI momentum and increasingly restrictive macro conditions.
📊 Market Snapshot
US Markets:
Index | Close | Daily Move |
|---|---|---|
S&P 500 | 7,743.41 | +0.51% |
Nasdaq | 27,068.72 | +0.48% |
Dow Jones | 51,828.62 | +0.93% |
Russell 2000 | 2,837.55 | +0.07% |
Market Takeaway: Large caps finished the week strongly, but the Russell 2000’s near-flat performance shows the rally is still heavily tilted toward bigger companies.
Key Markets:
Oil: $106.00 per ounce
Oil has reversed part of Friday’s decline after Trump rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal. Talks are expected to continue this week, but the Strait of Hormuz remains the central geopolitical risk.
Gold: $4,215/oz
Gold has come under heavy pressure as the dollar and US yields strengthen.
Bitcoin: Around $84,000 to $85,000
Bitcoin remains well below its recent highs but is holding around the mid-$80,000s despite rising yields and geopolitical uncertainty.
Dollar: The dollar remains strong as investors price in the possibility of another Fed hike.
🔎 Why Markets Moved
1. AI stocks continued to overpower macro concerns
Microsoft gained 3.7%, Qualcomm rose 4.0%, and Dell jumped 5.0%.
Why markets cared:
Investors still believe AI investment can deliver enough earnings growth to justify owning technology even with interest rates at restrictive levels.
2. Oil fell on Friday as Iran diplomacy raised hopes
Reports that US and Iranian negotiators were exploring a possible agreement helped oil retreat late last week.
Why markets cared:
Lower oil reduces inflation pressure and weakens the argument for additional Fed tightening.
That optimism has partially reversed this morning after Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal.
3. Treasury yields remained above 5%
The 10-year Treasury finished Friday around 5.16% after touching another multi-year high during the session.
Why markets cared:
The higher the risk-free return available from Treasuries, the harder expensive stocks have to work to justify their valuations.
Overall: AI optimism won Friday’s battle, but oil and bond yields remain capable of changing the market narrative quickly.
Biggest Winners 📈 & Biggest Losers 📉
Winners -
🟢 Dell: +5.0%
Dell rallied alongside other AI infrastructure stocks.
Why it moved:
Investors continue positioning around companies that could benefit from enormous AI computing and data-centre investment.
🟢 Qualcomm: +4.0%
Qualcomm was another major technology winner Friday.
Why it moved:
The broader semiconductor trade strengthened as investors continued adding AI-related exposure.
🟢 Microsoft: +3.7%
Microsoft climbed after unveiling new Copilot capabilities, including coding tools and an always-on AI agent.
Why it moved:
The announcement strengthened the argument that Microsoft can convert its enormous AI investment into commercially useful products.
🟢 Akamai: +3.2%
Akamai rose after announcing an $11.6 billion cloud-services agreement with Anthropic.
Why it moved:
The deal gives Akamai significant exposure to growing AI infrastructure demand.
🔴 Meta: -3.3%
Meta pulled back Friday after an enormous run earlier in the week.
Why it moved:
The stock had already gained roughly 13% for the week as enthusiasm around its Muse AI agent surged, encouraging some profit-taking.
Market Takeaway: AI remains the market’s clearest source of individual winners, but investors are becoming more selective after some extraordinary recent moves.
⚠️ Key Risks
1. Oil pushes toward $110
Brent has rebounded to roughly $106 this morning after Friday’s decline.
Why it matters:
A renewed move toward $110 would increase inflation expectations, pressure consumers and potentially push Treasury yields even higher.
2. The 10-year Treasury remains above 5%
Friday’s close around 5.16% leaves long-term borrowing costs at extremely restrictive levels.
Why it matters:
The longer yields remain here, the greater the pressure on mortgages, corporate borrowing and equity valuations.
3. Middle East diplomacy fails
The US and Iran are expected to continue negotiations despite Trump rejecting the latest proposal.
Why it matters:
Failure to reach an agreement leaves the Strait of Hormuz and regional energy infrastructure exposed to further disruption.
👀 What To Watch Today
1. AI and semiconductor leadership
Microsoft, Qualcomm, Dell and other AI-linked stocks ended Friday strongly.
Why it matters:
If technology can continue rising despite higher oil and yields, it would be another strong signal that AI enthusiasm remains the dominant equity-market force.
2. Fed commentary
Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak today, alongside the September Dallas Fed manufacturing survey.
Why it matters:
With another October hike increasingly priced in, investors will be listening closely for confirmation that policymakers remain willing to tighten further.
3. Oil & Yields
For the reasons mentioned above.
Bottom Line
AI continues to keep Wall Street moving higher, but the macro environment is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
With Brent back around $106 and the 10-year Treasury above 5%, today’s key question is whether technology can continue overpowering the pressure from oil and interest rates.